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FLYNN EFFECT
FAQ
[Hammond]
Thanks J.V. for contacting Professor Flynn. That is
quite
interesting. I understand he is a Professor of Political
Science not Psychology, at the U. of Dunedin in New Zealand.
He must
be a bit of a statistics expert, even Factor Analysis, if he is
investigating IQ and arguing with people like Prof. Arthur Jensen
and others about all this.
As you may know "IQ" is a major section of "Psychometry"
and the
IQ test now rests entirely on the method of Factor Analysis.
In fact,
they DISCOVERED Factor Analysis while investigating Intelligence
back in the period 1900-1930. It's amazing that the entire
theory of
STATISTICS (Galton, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer) was developed almost
entirely because people were using it to investigate Intelligence
and IQ!
Anyway, the 100 year history of Psychometry is traditionally
broken
into 2 parts Intelligence 1900-1935 resulting in the IQ test, and
then Personality 1935-2000 resulting mainly in E,N,P.
Just as in
Physics, the "time" dimension came first, and then the
3 space
dimensions next. By that I mean, Newtonian Gravity
is due ONLY to the curvature of the time-dimension (scalar potential)
and then Einstein
came along and discovered all 4-variables, XYZt were curved
(tensor potential) and actually caused gravity. So IQ is
more important than Personality in Psychometry, BECAUSE Time is
more important than Space
in Relativity.
As for the flynn Effect, basically, everyone is agreed that
world
intelligence is rising. The only surprising thing is that
it is
rising so FAST... I mean, Flynn reports that it's 15 IQ points
since 1950... that's one whole Standard Deviation on the
IQ Scale
.... nobody can believe the world is getting smarter THAT FAST.
Any practical person nevermind scientists can see that several
effects must be operating here. After all, consider this:
Artificial Flynn Effect
Suppose the Government passed a law that only
people with an IQ greater than 130 could have
children. What would happen? Well obviously
within 50 years the IQ of the nation would
jump from 100 to 130... a monstrous "Flynn Effect".
Now in this case, people would not be sitting
around saying "Wonder what causes the Flynn Effect",
obviously in this case they would KNOW what caused it.
OK, now obviously, after the Industrial Revolution set in and
technical jobs began appearing by the millions in machine tools,
factories, engine repair, railroads, electronics, office work
etc., and the old agriculture pea picking, potato hoeing jobs
began to disappear..... obviously there began a great "natural
selection" for intelligence in these new "technical" jobs.
We might assume as the steam and gasoline engine replaced hand
shoveling in farming, construction and mines, that in effect,
a law was passed that only the more intelligent could get jobs
and be able to have a family. Probably a large component
of the "Flynn Effect" is due simply to that.
And, there are other effects involved. Constantly
improving
education makes "test taking" easier for the average person.
Probably some of the Flynn Effect is simply due to massive strides
in world public education.
BUT FINALLY, we come to the interesting point. After
you subtract
out all of these "artificial" effects that might be causing IQ
measurements to rise.... is there anything left over which would
indicate that the human being himself is actually getting smarter
with each passing generation.... and an effect that is "non genetic"?
The answer seems to be definitely YES. In fact, all
experts agree
that the well known "Secular Trend" in human growth would obviously
cause in and of itself a secular trend in human intelligence, simply
because of increasing human brain size. It doesn't take a
rocket
scientist to figure out that if, due to a higher percentage of
growth, that our brains are getting bigger... naturally we are
going to get more intelligent. The fact that brain
growth causes intelligence can hardly be questioned for the following obvious
reason: The most well known thing about Intelligence is that it
increases linearly from the day you are conceived until you
are about 18 years old, and then levels off to a constant.
So well known is this fact that it lead to the well known
expression "Mental Age". In fact, that's what "Intelligence
Quotient" means... it's your actual intelligence divided by
your age (up to age 18). Actual intelligence goes from 0
to
1800 between the age of 0 and 18. 1800/18 = 100 which is
normal IQ. At age 9 your actual intelligence is 900 so that
900/9 = 100, again, normal IQ. Beyond age 18 you no longer
divide by the person's actual age, you just keep dividing by 18
because the person's test score will never get any larger than
1800 no matter how long he lives. Intelligence STOPS increasing
when the brain STOPS growing at age 18.
OK, why does Intelligence increase nearly linearly from
0 to
1800 between the time you are conceived to age 18... like I say,
it's a no brainer question... obviously it's because your
brain
is growing from 0 pounds (at conception) to 3-pounds at age
18.
And furthermore, intelligence STOPS increasing at 18 when
you STOP growing.. no matter how much more education you get.
Obviously this is proof that Intelligence is fundamentally
caused by brain growth. In fact, if your brain stops
growing prematurely or the growth lags behind, then automatically
your IQ goes down and they say that you are a case of "arrested
brain growth" and you end up being classified as "Mentally
Retarded" (IQ less than 70). So, "brain growth" is certainly
part
of the measured Flynn Effect because the Secular Trend
says that
overall brain growth is DEFINITELY increasing from generation to
generation the same as every other part of the body is.
We should mention that "braingrowth" does not merely mean size
and weight, but also the complex structural/dentritic and other
brain growth related changes associated with the human growth
cycle up to age 18 and adulthood.
At present, the scientists are still arguing over the sizes
of
the various components. My position is that the Flynn Effect is
basically composed of the above 3 described effects:
1. 40% natural selection for higher intelligence due
to increased demand for high tech employees
since
the industrial revolution and the rise of literacy
requirements.
2. 30% due to the Secular Trend increasing brain growth
(size of the brain) thus directly physically
causing
an increase in intelligence (mental speed).
3. 30% due to the rising educational levels in the world
which impacts IQ measuring since IQ tests are
sensitive
to educational proficiency to some extent.
Now these 3 effects are increasing curves timewise, but not
all at the same rate. Presumably 1. (above) has been a sharply
rising curve only in recent history, say since 1900. 3. likewise
has probably only really gotton strong since public education
has gotton strong, say since the Depression or WWII. 2. on
the
other hand is a very old (thousands and thousand of years) curve,
which has probably only gotten moderately strong since the advent
of the Industrial Revoluton.
Flynn himself apparently doesn't even think
there is a biological component... that the whole thing is about
"test taking" (3. above) .. frankly his opinion is not widely supported.
Then there are various "nutty" ideas like saying it's caused
by
increasing Testosterone levels in society. According to this
theory
it actually IS CAUSED by the Secular Trend, but this guy thinks
the
Secular Trend is caused by Testosterone. Again, this theory
is not
widely supported either for obvious reasons. Besides there
is some
suspicion the guy is trying to prove that Blacks are more violent
because they have higher Testosterone levels... and therefore
it's another racial theory in disguise.
In the end, it seems to the reasonable scientist
that there are
a couple of effects that are "inflating" the Flynn Effect, but
that
also, underneath it all, it IS just one more manifestation of the
Secular Trend that we are really dealing with.
As far as the SPOG is concerned, the Flynn Effect it only
is used
to support the "historical" aspects of the SPOG. The Flynn Effect
was never a "foundation stone" of the SPOG. It is a "prediction"
of the SPOG. Brain stunting (arrested brain growth) in Mental
Retardation and 3rd World Nutritional brain growth stunting vs.
IQ
loss, taken together, are MORE THAN SUFFICIENT to prove that the
brain
growth deficit causes an IQ deficit.
The Flynn Effect simply bolsters the "historical" aspects
of
the SPOG in the same way as the Secular Trend; it indicates the
coming existence of "Kingdom Come" eventually... the
"End of the World" so called in Religion... when we will all
arrive finally at Paradise on Earth. this presumes the obvious,
that the flynn effect is a Sigmoidal Curve (S-Curve) just like
the
Secular Trend, and will level off eventually at "100%".
To sum up the situation, we can say the following:
Every article ever written on the Flynn Effect mentions NUTRITION
in it somewhere. And NUTRITION is known to be the underlying
cause
of the Secular Trend (that and the rising Standard of Living in
genral). There is no doubt whatsoever, that the
Secular Trend is one component of the Flynn Effect (i.e. increased
brain growth). There are other components to the Flynn Effect
too,
mentioned discussed in detail above.
To argue that the Secular Trend is not one component of
the Flynn
Effect, and in fact the most "portentous component" from a scientific
viewpoint is a losing proposition.
At any rate, I have always pointed out that the Flynn Effect
is only
of passing interest to the SPOG, not essential in any way.
It is
simply a "prediction" of the SPOG which is apparently true.
It is
already well established that "brain growth" affects IQ from vast
Mental
Retardation studies and Malnutrition Growth Stunting studies, therefore
the 4th order factor is unequivocally identified as "percentage
of brain
growth". And the Secular Trend certainly establishes that
no one
has a full grown brain, therefore there has to be a Normal Distribution
in the population accounting for the G4 Factor. SPOG therefore
"predicts" the existence of a "Flynn Effect" in Intelligence...
and
"apparently" Flynn has actually discovered it although it
has several
other components as well, not the least of which is apparently
a
fierce "natural selection" pressure on Intelligence since the appearance
of "high tech" jobs since the Industrial Revolution, causing a
demographic
shift towards higher IQ representation in the population.
This however
is NOT a mutation of the DNA molecule in the past 50 years to cause
higher IQ, i.e. it is not "genetic".
Anyway, when you parcel out this effect, and the effect
of increasing
educational levels... I'm sure, because of increasing Nutrition
and
the rising Standard of Living in general, you will be left with
a
SIGNIFICANT component of the Flynn Effect due to the Secular Trend
in
brain growth.
Finally, I append here for your interest some citations concerning
Third World malnutrition growth stunting and it's impact on IQ
which is caused by the stunting of brain size due to generations
of
chronic starvation:
================================================
http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80478e/80478E0l.htm
The prevailing theory of growth and nutrition may be described as
the deprivation theory. Under this theory, it is assumed that
every individual is born with a given, genetically determined,
potential growth curve. If the individual is healthy and well
nourished, he will grow along this curve. Per contra, growth
significantly below this curve indicates poor health
and/or malnutrition.
David Seckler. Ford Foundation, New Delhi, India,
and Colorado State University, Boulder,
Colo., United States
==================================================
http://www.un-mongolia.mn/un-theme/mou-food3.htm#1
Kofi A. Annan - Secretary-General of the United Nations
An estimated forty percent of the world’s children,
226 million, are stunted, [13] defined as too
short for their age. Stunting is usually associated
with a long-term reduction in dietary intake, and is
closely related to repeated episodes of illness and
poor-quality diets. Statistically, stunting is associated
with impaired intellectual development,[14] as manifest
in reduced IQ,
==============================================
http://www.unicef.org/sowc98/silent.htm
UNICEF-- State of the Worlds Children 1998
Low-birthweight babies have IQs that average 5 points
below those of healthy children.
The effects of malnutrition also cross generations.
The infants of women who are themselves malnourished
and underweight are likely to be small at birth.
==============================================
http://www.nalamdana.org/malnutrition.htm
Several studies have shown that various types of early
malnutrition cause lower IQs in later childhood. These
differences are in the range of 8 to 20 IQ points which is
roughly between 0.5 and 1 standard deviations from the
global mean. It is estimated today that 53% of children in
India have malnutrition.
===================================================
http://robinsonrojas.com/child98p.htm#p3
Carol Bellamy, Executive Director,
United Nations Children's Fund
Among
children in Cebu, the causes include low birthweight,
insufficient breastfeeding, nutritionally inadequate food
The effects of stunting
In a non-verbal intelligence test given to eight-year-olds in
the Philippines, scores strongly correlated with children's
level of stunting at age two. Children severely stunted at
age two had the lowest test scores, while non-stunted
children had scores on average 11 points higher.
Level of stunting (IQ score)
None
57.9
Mild
53.3
Moderate
51.3
Severe
46.8
=============================================
http://www.monash.edu.au/APJCN/Vol4/Supp1/4S1p07.htm
Asia Pacific J Clin Nutr (1995) 4, Suppl 1, 7-12
Recommended dietary allowances for
growth, development and performance
Paul A. Lachance, PhD, DSc, FACN
Professor of Nutrition and Food Science Department
of Food Science, Rutgers University, NJ, USA
Note: See growth curves
and
Stunting vs IQ diagrams
===============================================